05/23 update codes, add build scripts

core/predictor.py

@@ -23,6 +23,9 @@ from core.analyzer import frequency_analysis, gap_analysis, positional_frequency
 from core.filters import passes_filters, sum_range_percentiles
 
 _MAX_FILTER_TRIES = 50
+# Exponential decay rate applied to historical draws.
+# Half-life ≈ ln(2) / 0.01 ≈ 69 draws (~5-6 months of Powerball draws).
+_DEFAULT_DECAY = 0.01
 
 
 # ── Internal helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -113,7 +116,8 @@ def _fill_to_count(chosen: list, game: dict, exclude: set | None = None) -> list
 
 def hot_numbers(game_id: int, last_n: int = 100, exclude: set | None = None) -> dict:
     """
-    Top main_count most-frequent numbers from the last last_n draws.
+    Top main_count most-frequent numbers from the last last_n draws,
+    weighted by recency (recent draws contribute more than older ones).
     Bonus: most frequent historical bonus ball.
     Falls back to random if there is no history.
     Applies combination filters; swaps the weakest pick if the ticket is weak.
@@ -124,19 +128,14 @@ def hot_numbers(game_id: int, last_n: int = 100, exclude: set | None = None) ->
     if not draws:
         return _random_ticket(game, excl)
 
-    recent = draws[-last_n:] if last_n and last_n > 0 else draws
-
-    counter = Counter()
-    for draw in recent:
-        counter.update(draw["numbers"])
-
-    ranked = [n for n, _ in sorted(counter.items(), key=lambda kv: (-kv[1], kv[0]))
+    freq   = frequency_analysis(game_id, last_n=last_n, decay=_DEFAULT_DECAY)
+    ranked = [n for n, _ in sorted(freq.items(), key=lambda kv: (-kv[1], kv[0]))
               if n not in excl]
     numbers = _fill_to_count(ranked[: game["main_count"]], game, excl)
 
-    sum_range = sum_range_percentiles(game_id)
+    sum_range   = sum_range_percentiles(game_id)
     ranked_pool = [n for n in ranked if n not in numbers]
-    numbers = _swap_filter(numbers, ranked_pool, sum_range)
+    numbers     = _swap_filter(numbers, ranked_pool, sum_range)
 
     bonus = _hot_bonus(draws, game)
     return {"numbers": numbers, "bonus": bonus}
@@ -179,7 +178,7 @@ def weighted_random(game_id: int, exclude: set | None = None) -> dict:
     """
     excl = exclude or set()
     game = get_game_by_id(game_id)
-    freq = frequency_analysis(game_id)
+    freq = frequency_analysis(game_id, decay=_DEFAULT_DECAY)
 
     pool    = _safe_pool(game, excl)
     weights = np.array([freq.get(n, 1) for n in pool], dtype=float)
@@ -207,7 +206,7 @@ def monte_carlo(game_id: int, simulations: int = 10_000,
     """
     excl = exclude or set()
     game = get_game_by_id(game_id)
-    freq = frequency_analysis(game_id)
+    freq = frequency_analysis(game_id, decay=_DEFAULT_DECAY)
 
     pool    = _safe_pool(game, excl)
     weights = np.array([freq.get(n, 1) for n in pool], dtype=float)
@@ -281,7 +280,46 @@ def positional_pick(game_id: int, exclude: set | None = None) -> dict:
     return {"numbers": numbers, "bonus": bonus}
 
 
-# ── Strategy 6: Quick Pick ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# ── Strategy 6: Ensemble ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def ensemble(game_id: int, exclude: set | None = None) -> dict:
+    """
+    Run all 5 core strategies and tally votes per number.
+    Numbers that appear across the most strategies are selected first —
+    they have multi-angle statistical support (hot AND due AND positional).
+    Bonus: most commonly suggested bonus across strategies.
+    Falls back gracefully if any individual strategy errors.
+    """
+    excl = exclude or set()
+    game = get_game_by_id(game_id)
+
+    tally       = Counter()
+    bonus_tally = Counter()
+
+    for fn in (hot_numbers, due_numbers, weighted_random, monte_carlo, positional_pick):
+        try:
+            result = fn(game_id, exclude=excl)
+            tally.update(result["numbers"])
+            if result["bonus"] is not None:
+                bonus_tally[result["bonus"]] += 1
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    ranked  = [n for n, _ in tally.most_common()]
+    numbers = _fill_to_count(ranked[: game["main_count"]], game, excl)
+
+    sum_range   = sum_range_percentiles(game_id)
+    ranked_pool = [n for n in ranked if n not in numbers]
+    numbers     = _swap_filter(numbers, ranked_pool, sum_range)
+
+    if bonus_tally:
+        bonus = bonus_tally.most_common(1)[0][0]
+    else:
+        bonus = _random_bonus(game)
+    return {"numbers": numbers, "bonus": bonus}
+
+
+# ── Strategy 7: Quick Pick ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 def quick_pick(game_id: int, exclude: set | None = None) -> dict:
     """